MODESTO, Calif. – The 2026 California Almond Forecast, published today by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimates that the crop harvested in 2026 will come in at 2.7 billion pounds, down 1 percent from the previous year. Forecasted yield is 1,940 pounds per acre, unchanged from the previous season.
"According to the polled growers, the industry is expecting a modestly smaller crop in 2026 compared to last year. This is an early estimate, and we will see how the crop progresses over the coming months," said Almond Board of California (ABC) President and CEO, Clarice Turner. "While this may signal tighter supply, California remains the world’s leading almond supplier, and ABC is focused on expanding global demand. Despite higher costs, regulatory pressures, and supply chain challenges, California almond farmers continue to deliver a reliable, high-quality crop."
As of December 2025, the ABC Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Objective Measurement Report, making a change in California almond crop estimates going forward.
This Subjective Forecast will be the only report from NASS for the coming crop year. The estimate is based on opinions from a survey of around 500 growers conducted from April 21 to May 6. The sample of growers was selected at random and were grouped by size of operation to ensure all growers were proportionally represented. Respondents had the option to report their data by mail, phone or online.
This Subjective Forecast comes two weeks after Land IQ’s 2026 Standing Acreage Initial Estimate found that bearing almond acreage in California decreased by 15,227 acres from the previous year to 1,385,870 million bearing acres.
NASS conducts the annual Subjective Forecast to provide the California almond industry with the data needed to make informed business decisions.
For more information
Almond Board Media: media@almondboard.com
ABOUT CALIFORNIA ALMONDS
California Almonds make life better by what we grow and how we grow. The Almond Board of California promotes natural, wholesome and quality almonds through leadership in strategic market development, innovative research, and accelerated adoption of industry best practices on behalf of the more than 7,600 almond farmers and processors in California, most of whom are multi-generational family operations. Established in 1950 and based in Modesto, California, the Almond Board of California administers a grower-enacted Federal Marketing Order under the supervision of the United States Department of Agriculture.
