When USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA‑NASS) releases the annual California Almond Subjective Forecast on May 12 at 9:00 a.m. PST, you may notice the report doesn’t look exactly like it has in the past. The difference is tied to a broader USDA‑NASS publication change — not to any change requested or directed by the Almond Board of California (ABC). ABC’s role is to help keep industry members informed and ensure you can find the information you rely on.
For decades, growers, handlers, and other stakeholders have used the Subjective Forecast as a consistent early-season reference point. Because many people know where to look for key figures and comparisons, even small shifts in layout can slow down that first read. While the report’s presentation may change, the industry’s need is the same: quickly locating the data points that support planning and market conversations.
Last year, USDA‑NASS has released a statement saying: “NASS will no longer generate publications tailored specifically to individual states or regions. There is no impact on state-level data as it will continue to be available in the national releases and through NASS’s public online database, Quick Stats. All NASS reports are available to the public at www.nass.usda.gov.”
For almonds, that means the Subjective Forecast may be packaged differently than the California-specific publication many are used to, however the survey methodology remains unchanged, and the California data will still exist within national releases and in Quick Stats.
To make the updated format easier to navigate, ABC will provide a brief cover letter when sharing the Subjective Forecast. The cover letter will act as a reader’s guide to point to where commonly referenced items appear and help industry members locate the information they are accustomed to seeing in the Subjective Forecast.
As an additional reminder, the Subjective Forecast will be the only yield-related report released by USDA this year. In December of 2025, ABC’s Board of Directors voted to cease funding for the USDA‑NASS Objective Estimate that has typically been released in early July.
ABC will share the Subjective Forecast as soon as it is released on May 12 and include the cover letter to help industry members orient quickly. If you have questions once the report is available, please contact ABC staff.
