Planting an almond orchard has never been a simple decision. But in today’s margin-tight environment, the choice of rootstock and variety combination is more than an agronomic preference — it is a 20- to 25-year business decision that can shape profitability, harvest efficiency, marketability and long-term risk.
That was the focus of a grower-facing discussion moderated by Almond Board of California’s Michael Roots, with perspectives from Dave Phippen of Travaille and Phippen, Duarte Nursery’s John Arellano and grower Brandon Ribiero, at the 2026 Almond Crack Out event.
For growers, the main message was clear. Do not make a planting decision in isolation. A new orchard should begin with a practical, sometimes uncomfortable, conversation about water, soil, rootstock, variety, harvest timing, market demand and, most importantly, economics.
“Know Your Breakeven Cost Per Pound”
Ribiero put the economics plainly when he said growers should “know your breakeven cost per pound.”
That calculation should sit at the center of every planting conversation. Ribiero described it as a simple equation of cost divided by yield. If a grower expects production costs of $3,500 per acre and assumes 2,500 pounds per acre, the breakeven is about $1.40 per pound. If debt, land costs or other obligations push total costs to $4,500 per acre at the same yield, that breakeven rises to $1.80 per pound.
That difference matters. In a market where prices can move quickly and margins can narrow, the wrong yield assumption, or the wrong rootstock and variety combination for a site, can make an orchard difficult to carry through the low points of the price cycle.
Ribiero also warned that growers cannot always “save their way to prosperity.” Trimming some costs may help at the margins, but yield is often what moves the breakeven number in a meaningful way. That makes variety performance, rootstock fit and realistic production expectations central to the decision.
Start With Water, Soil and Site Limitations
Before selecting a variety, Ribiero said growers should first understand “all things water” — supply, quality and rights. Without water, he noted, the rest of the planting plan loses its foundation.
From there, the conversation moves to soil. The right rootstock depends on what the site needs most, including vigor, anchorage, salt tolerance, disease resistance, replant tolerance or other characteristics. Prior Almond Board coverage of rootstock selection has emphasized the same point. Growers should identify a site’s limitations first, then select a rootstock that helps address the biggest risks.
That means soil tests, water quality information, local grower experience and advisor input should all be part of the planning process. Once trees are planted, growers can adjust irrigation and fertility programs, but they cannot easily redo rootstock selection, variety choice or pre-plant soil preparation.
Bring the Right People Into the Conversation Early
Roots framed the panel around a gap that often appears in orchard planning. Growers may talk with a nursery early, but the handler is sometimes brought in after planting decisions are already made, or never at all. The panelists encouraged growers to widen the conversation before committing to trees.
That group should include the nursery, handler, pest control adviser, neighboring growers and other trusted advisors who understand the region. Arellano said a nursery representative should be prepared to answer questions across rootstock, variety, fit for the site and how the planting will work operationally. If he does not have an answer, he said, the next step is finding someone who does.
Ribiero said he often asks similar questions of different people one-on-one, looking for patterns in the answers. Where the advice is consistent, growers gain confidence. Where there are outliers, that is where the next question should be asked.
Marketability Should Not Be an Afterthought
Phippen brought the handler perspective into sharp focus. A variety may look attractive on paper, and a nursery may be able to supply the trees, but the buying public ultimately determines how that almond is valued. Market classification, quality expectations, defects, customer preferences and regional demand all matter.
For Phippen, that means the marketing team should be part of the decision-making process. They can help growers understand what is moving well, what may be oversupplied and what buyers are asking for. A grower may be able to produce a variety, but the better question is whether the market wants it, and at what price.
That conversation is especially important because handlers may serve different customers and markets. Quality tolerance, product form, timing and buyer preference can vary. A variety that fits one handler’s program may not be the right fit for another.
Do Not Overcomplicate the Orchard
One of Ribiero’s lessons from experience was the value of simplicity. He described a planting with multiple varieties intended to hedge risk around bloom, pollination and market movement. In practice, that complexity created harvest inefficiency without delivering a better return.
His takeaway for growers was direct. Do not overthink it. A planting plan that is efficient, repeatable and well-matched to the site may provide more long-term value than one built around too many assumptions. Simplicity can reduce operational headaches and make it easier to scale what works.
Pre-Plant Work Is the Last Chance to Get Some Things Right
The panel also emphasized the importance of pre-plant groundwork and amendments. Ribiero noted that once an orchard is planted, it is difficult to incorporate materials into the active root zone. If a site needs amendments such as lime, gypsum, sulfur or compost, pre-plant is often the best opportunity to get them where they need to be.
That point ties directly back to economics. A grower may be tempted to trim development costs up front, but those savings can become expensive if poor preparation limits tree performance for the life of the orchard.
A Grower’s Pre-Planting Checklist
- Calculate your breakeven cost per pound using realistic cost and yield assumptions.
- Confirm water supply, water quality and water rights before moving deeper into planning.
- Match rootstock to soil conditions, site limitations and long-term orchard goals.
- Ask your handler how the variety fits current and future market needs.
- Talk with neighboring growers who have experience with similar soils, water and varieties.
- Include your PCA, nursery representative, handler and trusted advisors early.
- Review independent field data and regional trial information where available.
- Keep the orchard design practical for harvest timing, equipment and labor efficiency.
- Complete needed soil preparation and amendments before planting.
The Bottom Line
Choosing an almond rootstock and variety combination is not just a horticultural decision. It is a business plan, a risk-management strategy and a long-term commitment to a specific site. The most successful planting decisions begin before the nursery order is placed, with honest conversations about what the orchard must produce, what the market will reward and what the grower can afford.
For growers considering a new planting, Ribiero’s advice is a practical place to start. Know your breakeven cost per pound. From there, every other decision — water, soil, rootstock, variety, marketability and orchard design — should help answer one question. Can this orchard make money through the full price cycle?
